It would be a massive mistake for any team to take RB Jeremiyah Love over one of the top-three WRs.
Sure, we all like Love … we know he’s an incredible RB prospect, but the math just does not add up when you consider how value actually plays out in the NFL and what it means from a team-building standpoint.
The difference is staggering. It’s impossible to argue that the value of hitting on a franchise-altering WR is worth way more than hitting on a franchise-altering RB. In fact, it’s pretty easy to see that it’s about a $20M difference on average.
Sure, Love might be more likely not to bust than Carnell Tate, Jordan Tyson and Makai Lemon, but the value prop should always push an organization to a near-elite WR prospect (which is what JSN was, BTW) over an elite RB prospect. As Hayden Winks notes here, the 2v2s aren’t even close.
Let me take off my GM cap, though, and give you the fantasy take—I’m very excited to draft Love this year. In fact, I took him in the early second round of a best ball draft yesterday … but NFL GMs should not follow my lead.
If you have Puka Nacua in dynasty, what’s not to love? He’s already established as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, having just dominated to the tune of a league-high 129 catches, 1,715 receiving yards and 10 TDs. He’s the focal point of NFL MVP Matthew Stafford’s high-powered attack, and he’s barely turning 25. His star is still rising. We’re looking at potentially at least a five-year run of consistent greatness.
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More RBs To Avoid … This Time In Fantasy
Underdog drafts are in full swing, and while it isn’t even April yet, the early ADP is a pretty good indicator of what your home league draft might look like once we reach the summer. Sure, things will change, especially with the NFL Draft about a month away.
Looking at the early ADP, there are a few players that stand out as potential avoids for Adam Pfeifer. Again, so much can change, so it’s important to remember what Ian Hartitz preaches: Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.
De’Von Achane | RB | MIA
Underdog ADP: 13.2
I highlighted Achane as a post-free-agency fantasy football loser, and the more I think about it, the more I’ll likely be avoiding him in the first round of drafts this year. There is so much change in Miami right now, between the coaching staff, quarterback and wide receiver room. Achane is the only constant, and he should see plenty of volume.
It may just be a different volume.
Receptions have been a huge part of Achane’s game since entering the NFL. Over the past two seasons, Achane has averaged 72.5 catches and 86 targets, meshing perfectly with Mike McDaniel’s scheme and Tua Tagovailoa’s tendencies. But the changes in this Miami offense will directly impact Achane, especially his targets in the passing game.
Over the past two seasons, new Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis has had a very healthy 15% scramble rate, while only sporting a checkdown rate of 6.7%. Tagovailoa, meanwhile, has recorded a 2.5% scramble rate and 14.5% checkdown rate during that same span. There also might be fewer designed/schemed targets for Achane with McDaniel no longer calling plays. His offenses have been very fantasy-friendly, involving plenty of motion, shifts and space creation. Last year, Achane saw 20 targets from motion, which was tied for the fifth-most among running backs. And in 2024, no running back saw more motion targets than Achane (31).
Fading a player with the home run-hitting ability of Achane is scary, but I’m expecting more doubles and singles than long balls this season.
TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE
Underdog ADP: 48.3
Speaking of home-run-hitting running backs, Henderson posted four different runs of 50-plus yards as a rookie, but his usage was underwhelming, especially after being selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. Henderson logged 43% of the offensive snaps last season, while commanding 42% of the rush attempts and 36% of the routes, all below Rhamondre Stevenson. The veteran also handled 88% of the long down and distance snaps, as well as 67% of the two-minute drill, according to the Fantasy Life Utilization Report.
And during the playoffs, the utilization got even worse.
During New England’s Super Bowl run, Stevenson emerged as the clear lead running back, logging 71% of the snaps and 61% of the rush attempts. Henderson averaged just 8.8 touches per game throughout the playoffs, while playing just 31% of the snaps during that stretch. Overall, in games Henderson and Stevenson were both active, the rookie averaged under 11 touches and just 8.4 PPR points per game.
Henderson should see more involvement in Year 2, but this feels like a split backfield at the very best. And while everyone wants him to go away, Stevenson was strong last year, ranking third in yards per touch (5.9), 10th in yards per route run (1.45) and first in rushing yards over expected per attempt (+1.4).
We all love to make comparisons. They make the world go ‘round, don’t they? The fun debates of present day against players from the past is a never-ending talking point. With the Rookie Super Model, we can compare prospects from different years. Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland compared this year’s class with the classes dating back to the model’s inception in 2017. How does Jeremiyah Love compare to current studs like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs? Find out.
