NFL Draft Round 1 Pick-By-Pick Predictions: David Bailey Up, Caleb Banks Slides With Injury News
Matthew Freedman breaks down his latest NFL Mock Draft, providing pick-by-pick analysis for every team in Round 1.
The first wave of free agency is (thankfully) over, so now is a good time to update my 2026 NFL mock draft.
I'm not one to brag, but …
For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.
For all of our draft coverage, check out our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Guide. To view my NFL Draft first-round predictions in the form of a Round 1 Draft Board, see the bottom of the article.
Round 1 Pick-By-Pick Predictions For The 2026 NFL Draft
No. 1: Raiders—QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
Fernando Mendoza is the No. 1 player on my NFL Draft big board.
I don't think he's the most talented player in the class, but QB is the most important position in the league, and Mendoza is a worthy No. 1 pick.
I did a Fantasy Life Show episode a few weeks ago with Ian Hartitz on the 2026 QB class, and we spent a lot of time discussing Mendoza.
He's an incredibly clean prospect. In my opinion, he's multiple tiers above the other QBs in the class.
If he's the only QB who goes in Round 1 this year, I won't be surprised.
For fantasy, he's my No. 21 QB in our 2026 fantasy football rankings. For dynasty, I can see managers wanting to take him as the 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts … but it would be hard for me to prioritize him above RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame).
Mendoza is a fine option as the No. 1 pick in this class. He's really the only option, given that the Raiders need a QB. But I don't think he would've gone ahead of QB Cam Ward last year or QBs Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye the year before that.
So I'm not sold on Mendoza as the 1.01 this year in superflex rookie drafts.
Check out my Fernando Mendoza scouting report.
No. 2: Jets—EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
Still just 20 years old, Reese was a consensus first-team All-American last year, and he was one of the winners at the combine.
The Jets would love a QB, but there's no reasonable candidate at No. 2, so they take the best player available.
No. 3: Cardinals—EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
David Bailey was productive all through his four-year college career, and then last season he had a nation-best 14.5 sacks along with 19.5 tackles for loss as a unanimous first-team All-American.
He has great athleticism (4.50-second 40-yard dash) for his size (6-foot-4, 251 pounds).
The Cardinals need OL help, but this feels too early for any of the OTs, who all have significant questions.
So, best player available it is at a position of need/value, and that's Bailey.
In my previous mock, I had the Cardinals going with RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame), but then the team revised RB James Conner's contract and signed RB Tyler Allgeier in free agency, so I assume that they believe they're set at RB.
No. 4: Titans—RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
The Titans have RB Tony Pollard, but he's a prime cut candidate and not good enough anyway to keep the team from selecting one of the draft's best players.
Jeremiyah Love is just 20 years old. He won the 2025 Doak Walker Award as the top RB in college football, and over the past two seasons, he put up 3,014 yards and 40 TDs from scrimmage in 28 games.
With a three-down skill set, workhorse frame (6-0, 212 pounds), and home run speed (4.36, 40-yard dash), Love could be one of the NFL's top backs as a rookie.
I currently have him as my No. 7 RB for fantasy, and that feels as if it could be low.
To access our 2026 fantasy football ranks, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Here are the RBs over the past decade to go in the top half of Round 1 of the NFL Draft and finish their rookie seasons at 21 years old.
- 2016: Ezekiel Elliott (No. 4)
- 2017: Christian McCaffrey (No. 8)
- 2018: Saquon Barkley (No. 2)
- 2023: Bijan Robinson (No. 8)
- 2023: Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12
I put Love firmly in the tier of these players as a prospect.
If he lands in a functional offense—unlike Ashton Jeanty this past year—he could draw Round 1 investment in fantasy drafts for season-long, best ball and Guillotine Leagues™.
No. 5: Giants—LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
Sonny Styles is intoxicating.
He's an off-ball LB, but he has the size to play EDGE (6-foot-5, 244 pounds), the skill to play DB (No. 1 S in the 2022 recruitment class), and the athleticism to play RB, WR or TE (4.46, 40-yard dash, 43.5-inch vertical jump, 11-2 broad jump).
Styles could dominate in a defense with EDGEs Brian Burns and Abdul Carter.
No. 6: Browns - OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
Francis Mauigoa turns 21 in June. He was the No. 1 OT in the 2023 recruitment class, he started all three years at RT in college and this past season he was a consensus first-team All-American.
All that's great.
The problem: He might not have the arm length (33.25 inches) or the technique to stick at OT in the NFL.
Fortunately for the Browns that doesn't matter: They need help all along the OL.
No. 7: Commanders—EDGE Rueben Bain (Miami)
Rueben Bain started all three years in college, and last season he won the Ted Hendricks Award as the nation's top DE and earned consensus first-team All-American recognition.
His lack of height (6-foot-2) and arm length (30.88-inch arms) are issues, but his power as a rusher speaks for itself.
The Commanders need a DL upgrade.
No. 8: Saints—WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
As I've mentioned on the Fantasy Life Show, when it comes to Carnell Tate, I'm a little skeptical.
He was never the No. 1 WR at Ohio State. His junior breakout was rather modest (51-875-9 receiving, 11 games).
He measured in at the combine smaller than listed in college (6-foot-2, 192 pounds vs. 6-foot-3, 195 pounds). And his speed (4.53, 40-yard dash, 1.61, 10-yard split) is subpar for his size.
Some of his efficiency stats place him in a historical prospect tier with some big-time studs: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
But his relative lack of size/speed dynamism is concerning. It's easy to look at other guys with NFL success and suboptimal 40 times and say that Tate is like them … but literally all of them (CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins) were significantly bigger and more productive than Tate in college.
Also, I'd argue that all of them were more physical than Tate as collegiate pass catchers.
I still like Tate and expect him to have NFL success. He's the No. 1 WR in the 2026 Rookie Super Model.
But before the combine, I thought No. 8 was his draft capital floor. Now I think it's probably his ceiling.
Still, Tate will pair well alongside No. 1 WR Chris Olave.
No. 9: Chiefs—TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
Eventually, the Chiefs will need a successor to TE Travis Kelce, and in the meantime, they could use more playmakers on offense.
With Kenyon Sadiq, they get both.
He's undersized for the position (6-foot-3, 241 pounds), but he's fast (4.39, 40-yard dash, 1.54, 10-yard split) and explosive (43.5-inch vertical jump, 11-1 broad jump).
He has a real shot at going in the top 10.
No. 10: Bengals—S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
Based on talent, Caleb Downs could conceivably go in the top 5.
He entered college as a five-star recruit and the No. 1 S in the 2023 class, and now he exits it as a two-time unanimous first-team All-American and the winner of the Jim Thorpe Award and Ronnie Lott Trophy.
But he plays S, a position that has been devalued in the NFL Draft over the past decade.
In 2018, future first-team All-Pros Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James went outside of the top 10. In 2022, Kyle Hamilton went No. 14. And the next year, Brian Branch—as the first S off the board—went in Round 2.
Downs is elite, but he could realistically fall out of the top 10.
Here, I have him going No. 10 to the Bengals, who need all the secondary help in the world.
No. 11: Dolphins—CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
Mansoor Delane was a unanimous first-team All-Pro last year, and the Dolphins need to upgrade their secondary for defensive HC Jeff Hafley in his first season with the team.
No. 12: Cowboys—CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
Jermod McCoy missed all of 2025 to injury, but he turns 21 in August and was a ballhawk as a sophomore (4 INTs, 9 passes defended). The Cowboys could use another CB after releasing former first-team All-Pro Trevon Diggs in December.
No. 13: Rams—WR Makai Lemon (USC)
Makai Lemon was a unanimous first-team All-American last year and the 2025 Fred Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation's best pass catcher (79-1,156-11 receiving, 9-4-2 rushing, 12 games).
With Lemon, offensive HC Sean McVay gets another weapon for MVP QB Matthew Stafford.
No. 14: Ravens—G Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State)
The Ravens need OL help to protect QB Lamar Jackson, and Olaivavega Ioane might be the best overall OL in this class, so it's a good fit.
Because he's a G-only prospect, he'll likely fall outside the top 10, but this feels like the appropriate range for him.
No. 15: Buccaneers—EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
Keldric Faulk had only 10 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in three college seasons, but he has great size (6-foot-6, 276 pounds), pedigree (five stars as a recruit) and age (he turns 21 in September).
The Bucs need a replacement for free agent EDGE Haason Reddick.
No. 16: Jets—WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
I love Jordyn Tyson. He was the No. 1 WR at Colorado as an 18-year-old true freshman. As a redshirt sophomore at Arizona State he looked like one of the best WRs in the country (75-1,101-10 receiving, 12 games).
And then last year he dominated (57-628-8 receiving, 2-4-1 rushing) for the first seven games before hamstring injuries sabotaged the rest of his campaign.
His medical history is significant: His freshman season ended with an ACL tear, which sidelined him for most of the following year. His redshirt sophomore campaign culminated in a broken collarbone, and then the second half of his final season was wiped out by soft-tissue issues.
On the field, Tyson looks like the No. 1 WR in the class. The problem is that he's not always on the field.
Even so, the Jets need playmakers, and Tyson could be a great supplement alongside No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson.
No. 17: Lions—OT Spencer Fano (Utah)
Fano has experience at both OT spots, and last year he was a unanimous first-team All-American and the Outland Trophy winner as the best lineman in college football.
With his arm length (32.12 inches), Fano ultimately might need to kick inside as a C/G convert (like Duke LT Graham Barton did in 2024 when the Bucs drafted him in Round 1).
That could work for the Lions, whose OL is weakest in the interior.
No. 18: Vikings—S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
After his great combine …
- Size: 6-foot, 201 pounds
- Speed: 4.35, 40-yard dash
- Explosion: 41-inch vertical jump, 10-5 broad jump
… I now have Dillon Thieneman as the No. 2 S in this class.
He can play FS, SS, and slot CB, and that versatility will make him an attractive matchup chess piece for DC Brian Flores.
No. 19: Panthers—DT Peter Woods (Clemson)
Peter Woods never lived up to his potential in college (5 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss), but he's still only 21 years old and was the No. 1 DT in the 2023 recruitment class.
At some point, a team will bet on his traits. This feels like the right range in Round 1, and the Panthers could use a potential difference maker alongside DT Derrick Brown.
No. 20: Cowboys—EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
Akheem Mesidor turns 25 years old in April, so he might already be an almost finished product, but that could still work for the Cowboys, who need an immediate DL contributor.
Mesidor was productive in his first two years of college at West Virginia (9.5 sacks), and then last season he broke out with 12.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss.
No. 21: Steelers—WR Omar Cooper (Indiana)
QB Ty Simpson (Alabama) could be in play if the Steelers don't re-sign QB Aaron Rodgers. But assuming they do bring back Rodgers, I like Omar Cooper as a fit at No. 21: With his hard-nosed playing style, he feels like a Steeler.
Although Cooper never had a big breakout at Indiana (69-937-13 receiving, 3-74-1 rushing in 16 games last year), he was the co-No. 1 WR in his final season for the championship-winning Hoosiers, and his inside/outside versatility will allow him to pair well with No. 1 WR DK Metcalf.
No. 22: Chargers—DT Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)
Kayden McDonald is a pure NT who attracts double teams with his size (6-foot-2, 326 pounds), and yet he still managed last year to make an impact against the run (9 tackles for loss) and pass (3 sacks).
The Bears need more muscle in their interior DL.
No. 23: Eagles—OT Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
The Eagles like to invest in the trenches, and Monroe Freeling could probably play either OT spot in the NFL.
He has limited experience (18 games at LT), but Freeling also has outstanding size (6-foot-7, 315 pounds), arm length (34.75 inches) and athleticism (4.93, 40-yard dash).
No. 24: Browns—WR Denzel Boston (Washington)
Denzel Boston never had a big breakout (62-881-11 receiving, 12 games last year), but he has good size (6-foot-4, 212 pounds) and agility (4.28-second short shuttle).
The Browns need someone to push veteran Jerry Jeudy for the No. 1 WR role.
No. 25: Bears—DT Caleb Banks (Florida)
Caleb Banks is still raw, but he has great size (6-foot-6, 327 pounds) and athleticism (5.04, 40-yard dash).
The Chargers have needed help on their interior DL for years.
No. 26: Bills—Kevin "KC" Concepcion (Texas A&M)
The Bills just traded for WR DJ Moore, but they could still use another WR if they truly want to maximize QB Josh Allen.
Kevin Concepcion broke out as a true freshman as the featured playmaker at NC State (71-839-10 receiving), and then last season he was the No. 1 WR for the Aggies (61-919-9) while earning first-team All-American honors as a punt returner (25-456-2). On top of that, he steadily and effectively chipped in as a runner throughout his career (70-431-3).
With his skill set, Concepcion could be the final missing piece for the Bills offense.
No. 27: 49ers—OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
In Kadyn Proctor, the 49ers find a potential successor to longtime LT Trent Williams.
Still just 20 years old, Proctor was the No. 1 OT in the 2023 recruitment class, and then at Alabama, he started at LT for all three of his college seasons, the final of which resulted in consensus first-team All-American recognition.
Proctor's weight will always need to be managed (352 pounds at the combine), but he has the height (6-foot-7) to carry his sizable mass, and in a worst-case scenario, the 49ers can bump him to G if he struggles with speed on the perimeter.
No. 28: Texans—OT Caleb Lomu (Utah)
Lomu has good size (6-foot-6, 313 pounds) and athleticism (4.99, 40-yard dash) and two years of starting experience at LT.
The Texans need all sorts of OL help.
No. 29: Chiefs—CB Avieon Terrell (Clemson)
After trading away No. 1 CB Trent McDuffie to get this pick, the Chiefs use it to draft his successor.
The 21-year-old Terrell doesn't have great size (5-foot-11, 186 pounds) or production (3 career INTs), but like McDuffie, he has the smoothness and technique to play both inside and outside in DC Steve Spagnuolo's scheme.
No. 30: Broncos—LB CJ Allen (Georgia)
CJ Allen is a 21-year-old consensus first-team All-American who started 2.5 years in the SEC. He makes sense for a defense that needs an off-ball LB upgrade.
No. 31: Patriots—EDGE T.J. Parker (Clemson)
The Patriots could lose EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson in free agency, and T.J. Parker was a three-year starter who put up 21.5 sacks and 41.5 tackles for loss for his career.
No. 32: Seahawks—CB Colton Hood (Tennessee)
Hood has the height (6-foot) and speed (4.44, 40-yard dash) to stick with most NFL WRs, and the Seahawks will likely need to add a CB in the draft, given that CBs Josh Jobe and Tariq Woolen are both free agents.
2026 Mock Draft Methodology
Here's an outline of my mock process.
- Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
- Order players correctly within their position groups.
- Match teams with positions of need.
- Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.
I think of this process as if it's a puzzle.
First, I settle on the individual pieces to assemble, and then I try to put them together to create a reasonable-looking picture. I always know the final product will be more Picasso than Realism: Jagged, distorted and just maybe a little bit genius.
No trades: I don't like stacking randomness on top of chaos. A tradeless mock isn't realistic, but it might be more accurate. Plus, I think for the past half decade people have tended to overestimate the number of trades that will actually happen in Round 1.
Borderline Prospects Excluded From Round 1
Here are the six players on the Round 1 borderline whom I strongly considered including in the mock but ultimately chose to exclude.
- QB: Ty Simpson (Alabama)
- OT: Blake Miller (Clemson)
- EDGE: Cashius Howell (Texas A&M), Zion Young (Missouri)
- CB: Brandon Cisse (South Carolina)
- S: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo)
I wouldn't be surprised if as many as three of these guys ended up in my final mock.
Round 1 NFL Draft Board - Pick By Pick Predictions
| Pick | Team | Player | School | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | Fernando Mendoza | Indiana | QB |
| 2 | NYJ | Arvell Reese | Ohio State | EDGE |
| 3 | ARI | David Bailey | Texas Tech | EDGE |
| 4 | TEN | Jeremiyah Love | Notre Dame | RB |
| 5 | NYG | Sonny Styles | Ohio State | LB |
| 6 | CLE | Francis Mauigoa | Miami | OT |
| 7 | WAS | Rueben Bain | Miami | EDGE |
| 8 | NO | Carnell Tate | Ohio State | WR |
| 9 | KC | Kenyon Sadiq | Oregon | TE |
| 10 | CIN | Caleb Downs | Ohio State | S |
| 11 | MIA | Mansoor Delane | LSU | CB |
| 12 | DAL | Jermod McCoy | Tennessee | CB |
| 13 | LAR | Makai Lemon | USC | WR |
| 14 | BAL | Olaivavega Ioane | Penn State | G |
| 15 | TB | Keldric Faulk | Auburn | EDGE |
| 16 | NYJ | Jordyn Tyson | Arizona State | WR |
| 17 | DET | Spencer Fano | Utah | OT |
| 18 | MIN | Dillon Thieneman | Oregon | S |
| 19 | CAR | Peter Woods | Clemson | DT |
| 20 | DAL | Akheem Mesidor | Miami | EDGE |
| 21 | PIT | Omar Cooper | Indiana | WR |
| 22 | LAC | Kayden McDonald | Ohio State | DT |
| 23 | PHI | Monroe Freeling | Georgia | OT |
| 24 | CLE | Denzel Boston | Washington | WR |
| 25 | CHI | Caleb Banks | Florida | DT |
| 26 | BUF | Kevin Concepcion | Texas A&M | WR |
| 27 | SF | Kadyn Proctor | Alabama | OT |
| 28 | HOU | Caleb Lomu | Utah | OT |
| 29 | KC | Avieon Terrell | Clemson | CB |
| 30 | DEN | CJ Allen | Georgia | LB |
| 31 | NE | T.J. Parker | Clemson | EDGE |
| 32 | SEA | Colton Hood | Tennessee | CB |
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