The NFL Draft is a wonderful time to be an NFL bettor. I wrote about some of the basics for betting on the NFL Draft last week, and now I want to dive into a few wagers that I’ve already made.

Most of the major sportsbooks have yet to post a variety of lines for the NFL Draft. However, the emergence of prediction markets like Kalshi has given bettors another avenue to get their bets down early. Since bettors are not betting against the house on those sites, they don’t necessarily have to worry about getting crushed on soft lines. It allows them to post markets that the sportsbooks are afraid to touch with a month still left to go before the draft.

Let’s get right into it.

NFL Draft Early Best Bets Before Lines Move

David Bailey to Be a Top-3 Pick (-222)

There is little drama about who is going to be drafted first overall. Fernando Mendoza is a massive favorite to go to the Raiders, meaning that most of the intrigue starts at pick No. 2.

The Jets are also in dire need of a quarterback, but no other passer in this class is worth being selected this high. That gives the Jets the luxury of selecting the best player available.

That will likely come down to a few different defensive options: Bailey from Texas Tech, and Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles from Ohio State. Reese is currently the favorite to be selected second. Matthew Freedman and Ian Hartitz both have him going No. 2 overall in their most recent mock draft. According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, which compiles the selections from 48 expert mock drafts across the industry, Reese is going second in roughly 83% of them.

However, it should shock no one if Bailey hears his name before Reese on draft night. He is arguably the draft’s best pure pass rusher, compiling 14.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in his lone year at Texas Tech. He also graded out well athletically at the combine, giving him an 86 prospect grade per Next Gen Stats. That’s the top mark among all edge rushers in this class.

The Jets have been desperate for an edge rusher for most of my 36 years on this planet. They’ve had success finding guys on the interior, but they’ve never been able to land the superstar edge rusher to pin his ears back and get after the quarterback. It’s possible that Bailey is that guy. Thor Nystrom has Bailey going second overall in his mock draft.

If Bailey does get past the Jets at No. 2, the Cardinals could certainly scoop him up at No. 3. While they’ve been most commonly linked to an offensive lineman, the team definitely needs some pass rush help as well. They were 28th in the league in sacks per game last season, and they were 29th in PFF Pass Rush grade.

Ultimately, Bailey stands out as the best value to go in the top 3 on Kalshi. His odds to go top 3 are currently priced at roughly 59%, while Reese is much more expensive at 84%. Give me the value with Bailey every day of the week.

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Jeremiyah Love Drafted No. 4 Overall (-104)

Jeremiyah Love is another player who is in contention for the title of “best player in the draft.” His big red flag is that he plays a position that has historically garnered less importance in the draft in recent years.

That said, we’ve seen the league start to shift back toward a more run-focused philosophy in recent years. That has led to a renewed willingness among teams to attack the RB position in the draft. We saw Ashton Jeanty go sixth overall last season, while Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were both top-12 picks in 2023.

Love is arguably a better prospect than Jeanty was. While he didn’t have the same eye-popping production, he racked up more than 3,000 scrimmage yards and 40 touchdowns over his final two collegiate seasons. He did it at a blue-blood school in Notre Dame, so his body of work came against an elite level of competition.

Love ultimately averaged 6.9 yards per attempt in each of his final two seasons, and he’s also an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield.

The idea of pairing Love with Cam Ward in Tennessee could be too appealing for the Titans to pass up. Improving the run game would make life significantly easier for their young signal-caller, and it would give him another weapon to lean on in the short passing game.

The fact that the Chiefs were aggressive in signing Kenneth Walker in free agency suggests that they don’t think Love would be available when they get on the board at pick No. 9. The fourth pick might be his ceiling, but it’s a destination that makes a ton of sense.

Sonny Styles Drafted Outside Top 5 (-143)

Styles is one of the most intriguing prospects in this class. He’s a former safety who transitioned to linebacker, and he’s an absolute athletic freak. He grades out as No. 1 overall among linebackers in terms of Next Gen Stats athleticism for linebackers, and he’s No. 4 overall on our big board.

That said, Styles is more of a traditional stand-up linebacker than a hand-in-the-dirt pass rusher. He had just 1.0 sack as a senior and also recorded just 6.5 TFLs. He’s best deployed in coverage, with his ability to guard tight ends serving as his best potential trait at the NFL level.

While that definitely has value, it’s rare to see a non-pass-rushing linebacker drafted inside the top 5. Unless there’s a team that thinks they can turn him into Micah Parsons, it’s hard to imagine someone selecting him this early. He’s an early candidate to be a player who “slides” into the bottom half of the top 10.

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