Best 2026 NFL Win Total Bets To Target

Buffalo Bills - Over 10.5 Wins

Questionable trade with the Chicago Bears aside, the Buffalo Bills have had a productive start to their offseason, targeting their team needs to help give Josh Allen the support he needs to lead them to the Super Bowl. While giving up a second-round pick was certainly a choice, DJ Moore will at least give their pass attack some more flexibility, as well as allow them to punt on the position until the later rounds of the draft.

Where the Bills really made a splash was on defense, signing Bradley Chubb to help bolster a defensive line that ranked outside the top-10 in defensive EPA and near dead last in Run Defense PFF Grade while averaging the 28th most Opposing Rushing Yards per game. The Bills also signed CJ Gardner-Johnson, who was able to round back into form in the last few weeks of 2025, giving them some stability in their secondary.

With positive regression looming over their defense, the amount of variance in the Bills contests will decline, increasing their chances of capitalizing on their favorable schedule. A slate that includes two dates with the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, teams that are in the middle of a rebuild, as well as a potential swing game against Detroit, which lacks the production on defense that is needed to slow down Allen.

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Arizona Cardinals - Under 4.5 Wins

With Kyler Murray joining the Minnesota Vikings, Arizona will turn towards Jacoby Brissett, who started 12 games for the Cardinals in 2025. Brissett was a middling quarterback at best last season, ranking below league average in Quarterback EPA per Play, Bad Throw Percentage and in Air Yards/Reception.

Heading into 2026, Brissett’s struggles are poised to persist as the Cardinals have underwhelmed in their efforts to surround him with a supporting cast that is capable of elevating his level of play under center. Tyler Allgeier is a depth piece at best, while Kendrick Bourne will do little to create space for their other pass catchers. 

The Cardinals offensive line is also still a major cause for concern, ranking in the bottom ten in True Pass Set Grade. Their inability to hold their ground will consistently force Brissett to throw under pressure, increasing the amount of Havoc in his throws.

To make matters worse for Arizona, the NFC West is as strong as ever with the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks all sitting near the top of the odds board to win the Super Bowl. Outside of their division, the Cardinals draw the short end of the stick, projected to be a short favorite in just two of their 11 games barring a significant injury. With no clear path for success, expect the Cardinals to struggle to compete and fall below their win total.

Detroit Lions - Under 10.5 Wins

Arguably one of the biggest disappointments in 2025, the Detroit Lions failed to make the playoffs after entering the year listed as one of the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. Injuries derailed their secondary for the third year in a row, forcing the Lions to rely on their offense to play a near-perfect game just to squeak out the win.

Unfortunately for Detroit, their offensive line failed to give them the production they needed, primarily in the interior, where they were consistently pushed back. This forced Jared Goff to get the ball out of his hands quicker than anticipated, as well as give their pass catchers less time in the open field to break away from the opposing coverage.

After making minimal adjustments to their offensive line in free agency, the Lions' struggles in the interior will continue to plague their offense. While Cade Mays graded out well in Pass Block per PFF, his inability to generate a push in run sets will handicap their versatility. The Lions' dismissal of their secondary and defensive line also leaves them thin at the position, making them vulnerable to regression should they suffer another major injury.

While the Lions do get the benefit of a friendly schedule due to their fourth-place finish in the division last year, their lower-tier competition all have had significant offseasons, closing the gap between them in regard to talent on the field.

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