It’s that time in the offseason when the rookie buzz gets so loud you can barely hear your dynasty leaguemates yelling at you to “stop sending so many damn trade offers” and “seriously that’s way too many trade offers you whack job” and “no really, we’ve all discussed it and we’re worried about you. Please stop or we’ll have to stage an intervention.”

Or as I call it … March.

We’re in the limbo between the NFL Scouting Combine and the NFL Draft, where we know more about the 2026 class with every passing day. On the flipside, we still know precious little about what’s coming down the pipeline in 2027. Given that many of you are probably itching to trade for or trade away rookie picks, I thought comparing 2026 picks to 2027’s would be a helpful exercise.

Are 2026 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Picks Devalued?

Conventional wisdom is that rookie picks generally gain value the closer to that year’s rookie draft we get. So, hypothetically, a rookie pick will never be more valuable than when said pick is officially “on the block” in your draft. But that hasn’t necessarily been the case for the 2026 crop of rookies so far. In fact, over the last three months, the average 2026 first-round pick has seemingly decreased in value.

A year ago, it was tough to get much of anything in return for a 2026 pick that wasn’t guaranteed to be the 1.01 through maybe the 1.04 (or the 1.05 in Superflex formats). And even then, a whole lotta folks seemed to prefer trading for a random 2027 first instead. That trend has held up in the early part of this calendar year.

This is purely anecdotal, but in my most active dynasty league, rebuilding teams have dived headfirst into accumulating 2027 picks, with little to no interest in my sweet and tasty 2026 1.11 pick. Keep in mind this is a life-changing pick that is definitely worth a high-value wide receiver—in that league and only in that league—and yet my leaguemates are treating it like a day-old donut!

Less anecdotal, KeepTradeCut currently values late-2027 firsts over mid-2026 firsts. A late 2027 first is listed as on par with Rashee Rice, whereas a Mid 2026 first rates closer to Jameson Williams. Though definitely not perfect or universal, it’s important to note that those values are driven by actual user inputs. And I get why those users are valuing them that way …

2026’s Steep Drop-Off

As Sam Wallace and I have discussed in a recent mock draft, there is a major cliff after the top tier of prospects in this class. Leading the charge as the undisputed RB1 is Jeremiyah Love, who profiles similarly to Ashton Jeanty from the 2025 class. Love is about as can’t-miss as we get these days. Enjoy it.

After that, there’s a small group of receivers with significant upside but also too many questions to consider them outright studs. In no real particular order, Makai Lemon, Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson are pretty much Velcro’d together in a little bundle. In Superflex leagues, Fernando Mendoza would be just above them. And in Tight End Premium formats, you could make a pretty easy argument for Kenyon Sadiq above some or all of those receivers.

… But then what? There’s some solid receiver depth, but no true standouts beyond those listed above. The remaining running backs are extremely landing-spot dependent, and the league’s best landing spots were mostly erased in free agency. Maybe you really like tight end Eli Stowers’ Combine performance or think Denzel Boston would suck up targets with the Commanders like a rogue vacuum cleaner. But finding consensus among fantasy analysts, let alone your leaguemates, is a fool’s errand right now.

And that means if you have one of those mid-to-late 2026 firsts, you’re much better off holding it tightly until your commissioner clicks “start” on the rookie draft. Maybe then someone who views Jonah Coleman as “their guy” will offer something respectable for my very good and worthwhile 1.11 pick …

How Do 2027 Rookie Picks Compare?

On the flipside, though we have little concrete information about the 2027 rookie class, the stock for those picks continues to rise. Is it because we in the dynasty community are all so sure that class is stacked with talent? Or are we just pushing our chips a little further down the table in hopes that the 2027 group can at least be better than what we’re drafting this year?

The answer is probably … yes. To all of it. 2027 has some clear headliners like WR Jeremiah Smith and QB Arch Manning. Guys that have already locked in the top spots in non-QB and Superflex formats, respectively, barring any catastrophes next season. But college evaluators much smarter than me have determined that 2027 is also loaded with quality depth. In fact, the only area 2026 seems to have it beat, as a whole, is with wide receivers.

Of course, 2027 is still a long ways away. To paraphrase Kyle Shanahan, we can’t even guarantee any of us will be alive in 2027. Players get injured, have down seasons, and eschew the NFL Draft in favor of that sweet, sweet NIL money.

So your approach in attacking these classes probably comes down to:

1) Your status as a rebuilder vs. contender

2) Your patience level

3) Which positions you value most in dynasty

So … What To Do With Your Rookie Picks?

If you trust the general consensus surrounding these draft classes, then you’ll probably want to move off your mid-to-late 2026 firsts in favor of literally any 2027 1st. But that’s the thing about consensus: Most people in your league are probably thinking the same damn thing! So you’ll likely need to sweeten the deal by throwing a 2026 second or some dart-throw players onto your side of the offer to balance things out.

This puts you in a pretty good spot to be a contrarian. If no one values 2026 rookie picks outside of the top few, then why not toss out some offers for the rest? Could you get, say, the 1.11 pick this year for a 2027 second and third? How high of a 2026 pick could you get if you offered a contender Mike Evans?

Alternately, just how much do the rebuilders in your league value those gold-flecked 2027 firsts? Would they dare part with Nico Collins for one in the hopes that your team stinks and thus gets them into the top of the first round? If you’re confident that your team is playoff-worthy, that’s an interesting move.

These are the types of trades that are worth exploring before the NFL Draft. Because once we cross the threshold into May, and all the prospective flowers have blossomed into actual NFL players, there’s a good chance these lesser-regarded 2026 picks will become just a little more expensive.