
Dwain McFarland breaks down the Rookie Super Model's analysis of incoming WR Bryce Lan

Brother of NFL QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State WR Bryce Lance checks in as the WR15 in the release of the 2026 Rookie Super Model.
I've profiled 25 of the top wide receivers in the class with individual Prospect Profiles from their Super Model data. For the full WR class, check out the 2026 WR Rookie Super Model.
If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.
You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.

A three-star recruit out of Minnesota in 2021, Bryce Lance set high school records at Marshall Senior High School with 1,766 yards and 68 receptions.
Trey Lance's younger brother was at North Dakota State for five seasons. He redshirted his first year and didn't play a meaningful role on offense until his fourth and fifth seasons. Lance became the first WR in the history of the program to record back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and was a First-Team All-American in 2025.
He never entered the transfer portal, but reportedly was offered a seven-figure NIL deal from Power Four programs after his breakout year in 2024. He elected to stay with the Bison.
Despite his age, Lance is viewed as an ascending player based on his final two seasons and his crushing performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.
What the Production Says
Lance didn't get on the field until his fourth season, which hurts his adjusted career RYPTPA. He was electric when targeted against FCS competition.
While the model is docking Lance for a late breakout, low Program Quality Rating and easy Strength of Schedule Rating, his raw production was amazing:
His raw career RYPTPA of 2.08 (55th percentile) is similar to that of former Bison Christian Watson, who posted a 2.19 (58th percentile). Watson was 23 as an NFL rookie.
Lance gained a first down on 13% of his routes (70th percentile) and notched a 72nd percentile 3.07 YPRR over his career.
Beyond the Production
Lance's target-depth profile paints the picture of a deep-ball virtuoso. He saw 62% of his targets come 10-plus yards downfield.
He aligned wide on 87% of snaps and notched a 14.1 aDOT (66th percentile). Lance secured 61% of his contested targets and rarely dropped the football (2.4%).
Lance didn't add much after the catch with a 5.1 YAC, which was -0.3 yards vs. expected after adjusting for aDOT.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com gave Lance a 6.00 prospect grade (44th percentile), which equates to: traits or talent to be an above-average backup. Zierlein calls out limitations in quickness and short-area agility that limit Lance's route running. His route tree is limited, and he won't be able to rely on pure speed in the NFL. However, Zierlein calls out his speed and ball skills as positives.
All of those notes align with Lance's data profile as a downfield threat, and his short-area route-running limitations might have been a factor behind how long it took for him to make a dent in the North Dakota State offense.
In case you are wondering, Zierlein had a grade of 6.27 (58th percentile) on Watson.
Lance absolutely crushed at the NFL Scouting Combine, which will get teams dreaming about potential upside—especially as a boundary field stretcher.
Since 2018, 73 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 66 and 76, with 19% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.
Lance's closest Super Model comps:
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Lance as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick. His extremely late breakout against low-level competition hurts his Production Rating. He has the raw athletic traits that could earn him a role as a field-stretcher. But he will need to broaden his skill set to become a primary option. The fun part about targeting Lance in fantasy football: at least he flashed dominant upside over his final two years and backed it up with a great NFL Scouting Combine. He is an upside WR5 dart throw in fantasy.
