Carnell Tate of Ohio State is the WR1 in the 2026 Rookie Super Model, where I've profiled 25 of the top wide receivers in the class with individual Prospect Profiles from their Super Model data. For the full WR class, check out the 2026 WR Rookie Super Model.

If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.

You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.

Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For Carnell Tate

• Super Model Rating: 92 (7th since 2018)
• Draft Pick: 8 (based on mock draft data)
• Rookie Age: 21.6 (age when the 2026 NFL season starts)
• Height: 74 inches
• Weight: 192 pounds

Tate was rated as a five-star recruit by Rivals and 247Sports out of IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, in the 2023 class. ESPN rated him as a four-star prospect, making him one of the most-sought-after recruits in the nation with a reported 37 scholarship offers.

Ultimately, Tate opted to attend Ohio State, competing for playing time against future first-rounders like Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. Tate carved out an impressive 42% route participation rate as a true freshman, before settling in as a full-time player in Years 2 and 3 under the tutelage of WR-whiz Brian Hartline.

What the Production Says

Tate's Production Rating of 84 ranks 25th out of 41 first-rounders since 2018 (including this year's projected Round 1 WRs). That is slightly below the average of 87 for a top-10 pick.

• Adjusted Career Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (RYPTPA): 54th percentile
• Targeted QB Passer Rating: 130.6 (79th percentile)

Nerd Note: Adjusted Career RYPTPA adjusts for age, strength of schedule (SOS), target competition, QB passer rating, alignment and average depth of target (aDOT). This helps us normalize data across players who played in very different environments.

The good news: his RYPTPA improved every year: 0.79 → 1.70 → 2.74. Tate averaged 80 receiving yards and scored 9 TDs in his final year. His teammate-adjusted career RYPTPA was 0.54 over expected. While Tate didn't post elite raw numbers, he overcame an incredibly loaded receiving room to carve out a significant role.

Tate's profile aligns with mid-to-late first-rounders, and two of his closest comps, while stylistically different players, are fellow Buckeyes:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 85 rating, 55th-percentile RYPTPA, 82nd-percentile Passer Rating
• Emeka Egbuka: 84 rating, 59th-percentile RYPTPA, 71st-percentile Passer Rating 

Tate is a very good receiving prospect, but is likely getting pushed up NFL Draft boards due to a lack of blue-chip prospects at other positions. That inflates his draft capital in the model, but it doesn't make him a bad prospect—it just means he's a mid-to-late Round 1 profile in most years.

Beyond the Production

Tate attacks all three levels beyond the line of scrimmage, with a heavier lean toward short and medium depths compared to the average prospect:

• Behind the line of scrimmage: 10% (-4 vs. avg)
• Short (0-9 yds): 37% (+1 vs. avg)
• Medium (10-19 yds): 34% (+8 vs. avg)
• Deep (20+ yds): 19% (-3 vs. avg)

His 12.9 career average depth of target (aDOT) falls in the 59th percentile and aligns with the data above—this is a balanced receiving prospect with the diversity to unlock multiple layers of the football field on Sundays.

After the catch, Tate was below average. His 4.8 career yards after the catch (YAC) was -0.5 over expected after adjusting for his aDOT. He ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash (59th percentile) at the NFL Scouting Combine, a very similar time to CeeDee Lamb (4.50). Lamb also had an identical aDOT, but his YAC over expected was +3.2. Again, this isn't trying to paint a bad picture of Tate; it is just to help provide a clearer picture of his profile. He aligns more with Drake London (+0.2) from a YAC perspective.

Nerd Note: There is an inverse relationship between aDOT and YAC. As aDOT moves higher, YAC moves lower and vice versa. YAC over expected normalizes for aDOT.

Where Tate separates himself: contested catch rate. He hauled in 69% of contested targets—fifth highest in the Rookie Super Model database. With 87% of his snaps coming from outside, he's a legitimate boundary receiver who can win in traffic. His 3% career drop rate is well below the 5% average for NFL Draft prospects since 2018.

Lance Zierlein's 6.71 grade—his top WR in the class—cites Tate's "timing, body control and catch radius," along with route savvy that creates separation over the first two levels as positives. That grade is in the 79th percentile since 2018.

Fantasy Outlook

There have been 11 WRs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 87 and 97 since 2018, with 82% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

• Top-six finishes: 18%
• Top-12 finishes: 27%
• Top-24 finishes: 82%
• Top-36 finishes: 88%

Tate's closest Rookie Super Model prospect comps:

• Chris Olave
• Brian Thomas Jr.

Tate's draft capital is elite. However, his production rating (84) isn't as high as players like Ja'Marr Chase (92), Malik Nabers (90) and CeeDee Lamb (100). Olave (88) and BTJ (81) offer a nice range. 

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Tate as a mid-Round 1 NFL talent. He carved out a substantial role in a loaded Buckeyes offense as a contested-catch maestro who can attack all three levels of the field. NFL offenses can deploy that archetype in numerous ways, which unlocks a variety of paths to fantasy production. Tate isn't a high-end YAC player, so his chunk plays will likely need to come via downfield receptions, but the TD potential is strong. Tate profiles as a WR2 with WR1 upside in fantasy football.

Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile

• Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
• aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
• Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
• Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
• Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
• Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
• FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
• Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
• Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
• Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
• RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
• SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
• Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
• TPRR: Targets per route run.
• YAC: Average yards after the catch.
• YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
• YPG: Yards per game.
• YPRR: Yards per route run.

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