Emmett Johnson Prospect Profile From The 2026 Rookie Super Model
Dwain McFarland breaks down the Rookie Super Model's analysis of incoming rookie RB Emmett Johnson and what his outlook for fantasy football looks like.
The RB4 in the Rookie Super Model entering the 2026 NFL Draft, RB Emmett Johnson comes into the NFL out of the University of Nebraska. For the full RB class, check out the 2026 RB Rookie Super Model.
If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.
You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.
Prospect Profile For RB Emmett Johnson From The Rookie Super Model
Super Model Rating: 69 (68th since 2017)
Draft Pick (based on Mock Draft data): 87
Rookie Age: 22.9
Height: 70 inches
Weight: 205 pounds
Johnson was a consensus three-star recruit in 2022 out of Minnesota. As a high school senior, he rushed for 2,500 yards and 42 TDs, earning the MaxPreps State Player of the Year.
At Nebraska, Johnson redshirted his first season before carving out a rotational role over his next two years. In Year 4, he became the bell cow, playing 87% of the snaps for the Cornhuskers.
What the Production Says
Johnson's 73 Production Rating is driven by forces pulling in opposite directions.
Year-Weighted YPTA: 1.18 (41st percentile)
Best YPTA: 2.88 (78th percentile)
Best RYPTPA: 1.05 (52nd percentile)
Nerd note: What do these numbers mean?
YPTA: Adjusted yards per team attempt (pass + rush), with receiving yards double-weighted. Normalizes production across teams with different play volumes.
Year-Weighted YPTA: Weights Years 1-3 more heavily, where college production best predicts NFL success. Year 4 carries a negative correlation. Good players show up early.
Best YPTA: Career-high yards per team attempt season.
Best RYPTPA: Peak-season receiving yards per team pass attempt, normalizing production across run-heavy vs. pass-heavy offenses.
Let's start with the negative: he was a late bloomer. Johnson didn't emerge as a true force until his final year in Lincoln. The slow start pulls down his year-adjusted YPTA.
Year 1: 0.00 (redshirt)
Year 2: 0.96 YPTA (bad)
Year 3: 1.34 YPTA (below average)
Year 4: 2.88 YPTA (elite)
It may seem harsh to give a player a zero for a redshirt season, but historically, the best players get on the field sooner rather than later. And Johnson never had to compete with future pros.
Now let's look at the positive: he was a monster in his final year, posting a career-best 2.88 YPTPA (78th percentile).He averaged 121 yards rushing and punched in 12 scores, adding 31 receiving YPG and three TDs. That receiving production led to his career-best RYPTA (1.05) and target share (16%).
Not notching meaningful production until Year 4 isn't good overall, but the elite nature of Johnson's final season is notable. We have seen mixed results from similar production profiles:
Rashaad Penny: 48th-percentile year-weighted YPTA, 86th-percentile best YPTA
If we zoom out and look at Johnson's career receiving numbers per route, we see marks in line with his career RYPTPA of 0.72 (39th percentile).
Career YPRR: 1.15 (41st percentile)
Career TPRR: 17% (42nd percentile)
For his career, Johnson was a below-average receiving back, but his best-season RYPTPA and target share numbers provide optimism.
Beyond the Production
Johnson's Film Rating (79) is the third-highest in the class.
NFL.com Prospect Grade: 6.00 (38th percentile)
Career PFF Rushing & Receiving Grade: 76.0 (79th percentile)
Johnson profiles as a good all-around performer with 60th percentile or higher marks in career PFF Receiving Grade (69.5) and Rush Grade (82.5). Lance Zierlein notes that Johnson's running style is decisive but "fairly predictable," and he sees a gap scheme as his best fit. He points to contact balance, breakaway speed, and power as potential limiting factors when scouting Johnson's ability to translate his skills to the NFL.
Those numbers align with his underlying rushing advanced data:
Rushing Average Yards After Contact: 3.01 (24th percentile)
10-Plus Yard Attempts: 13% (33rd percentile)
Johnson ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash (48th percentile) with a 93.4 Speed Score (57th percentile), which aligns with his low explosive rush rate.
Nerd Note: Bill Barnwell invented Speed Score. It helps us understand how fast a player is relative to their weight. A 180-pound RB running a 4.40-second 40-yard dash isn't the same thing as a 215-pound back with the same time. Of all the testing data points from the NFL Scouting Combine, Speed Score carries the most signal for NFL RB production. Formula: Weight*200/(40-yard dash)4.
From a receiving standpoint, Zierlein calls out Johnson's soft hands as a plus, which aligns with his 1.9% drop rate—well below the 6.8% average for RB prospects since 2017. However, Johnson will need to improve as a pass blocker to unlock that element of his game. Johnson's 28.1 Career PFF Pass Block Grade (15th percentile) and 13% pressure rate allowed on pass-block snaps are at the bottom of the spectrum.
Fantasy Football Outlook For Emmett Johnson
There have been 94 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 64 and 74 since 2017, with 22% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Johnson as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick. He was electric in Year 4 but a late bloomer, keeping his Production Rating in check. He is one of the better receiving backs in the class, but he must clean up his pass-blocking issues to earn consistent passing-down snaps. If he improves as a blocker, he could create fantasy value on an RB-poor team as an every-down option. Johnson is an RB4 with RB3-RB2 upside in the right situation in fantasy land.
Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile
Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
TargetShare: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
TPRR: Targets per route run.
YAC: Average yards after the catch.
YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
YPG: Yards per game.
YPRR: Yards per route run.
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Nerd note: What do these numbers mean?
