
Dwain McFarland breaks down the Rookie Super Model's analysis of incoming rookie RB Emmett Johnson and what his outlook for fantasy football looks like.

The RB4 in the Rookie Super Model entering the 2026 NFL Draft, RB Emmett Johnson comes into the NFL out of the University of Nebraska. For the full RB class, check out the 2026 RB Rookie Super Model.
If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.
You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.

Johnson was a consensus three-star recruit in 2022 out of Minnesota. As a high school senior, he rushed for 2,500 yards and 42 TDs, earning the MaxPreps State Player of the Year.
At Nebraska, Johnson redshirted his first season before carving out a rotational role over his next two years. In Year 4, he became the bell cow, playing 87% of the snaps for the Cornhuskers.
What the Production Says
Johnson's 73 Production Rating is driven by forces pulling in opposite directions.
Nerd note: What do these numbers mean?
Let's start with the negative: he was a late bloomer. Johnson didn't emerge as a true force until his final year in Lincoln. The slow start pulls down his year-adjusted YPTA.
It may seem harsh to give a player a zero for a redshirt season, but historically, the best players get on the field sooner rather than later. And Johnson never had to compete with future pros.
Now let's look at the positive: he was a monster in his final year, posting a career-best 2.88 YPTPA (78th percentile). He averaged 121 yards rushing and punched in 12 scores, adding 31 receiving YPG and three TDs. That receiving production led to his career-best RYPTA (1.05) and target share (16%).
Not notching meaningful production until Year 4 isn't good overall, but the elite nature of Johnson's final season is notable. We have seen mixed results from similar production profiles:
If we zoom out and look at Johnson's career receiving numbers per route, we see marks in line with his career RYPTPA of 0.72 (39th percentile).
For his career, Johnson was a below-average receiving back, but his best-season RYPTPA and target share numbers provide optimism.
Beyond the Production
Johnson's Film Rating (79) is the third-highest in the class.
Johnson profiles as a good all-around performer with 60th percentile or higher marks in career PFF Receiving Grade (69.5) and Rush Grade (82.5). Lance Zierlein notes that Johnson's running style is decisive but "fairly predictable," and he sees a gap scheme as his best fit. He points to contact balance, breakaway speed, and power as potential limiting factors when scouting Johnson's ability to translate his skills to the NFL.
Those numbers align with his underlying rushing advanced data:
Johnson ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash (48th percentile) with a 93.4 Speed Score (57th percentile), which aligns with his low explosive rush rate.
Nerd Note: Bill Barnwell invented Speed Score. It helps us understand how fast a player is relative to their weight. A 180-pound RB running a 4.40-second 40-yard dash isn't the same thing as a 215-pound back with the same time. Of all the testing data points from the NFL Scouting Combine, Speed Score carries the most signal for NFL RB production. Formula: Weight*200/(40-yard dash)4.
From a receiving standpoint, Zierlein calls out Johnson's soft hands as a plus, which aligns with his 1.9% drop rate—well below the 6.8% average for RB prospects since 2017. However, Johnson will need to improve as a pass blocker to unlock that element of his game. Johnson's 28.1 Career PFF Pass Block Grade (15th percentile) and 13% pressure rate allowed on pass-block snaps are at the bottom of the spectrum.
There have been 94 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 64 and 74 since 2017, with 22% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
Skill set: Potential Every-Down RB.
Johnson's closest Super Model comps:
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Johnson as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick. He was electric in Year 4 but a late bloomer, keeping his Production Rating in check. He is one of the better receiving backs in the class, but he must clean up his pass-blocking issues to earn consistent passing-down snaps. If he improves as a blocker, he could create fantasy value on an RB-poor team as an every-down option. Johnson is an RB4 with RB3-RB2 upside in the right situation in fantasy land.
