Justin Joly Scouting Report and Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile
Dwain McFarland breaks down the Rookie Super Model's evaluation of incoming rookie TE Justin Joly.
Justin Joly finds himself as the TE4 in this year's Super Model. For the full TE class, check out the 2026 TE Rookie Super Model.
If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.
You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.
NFL Draft Scouting Report and Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile On TE Justin Joly
Super Model Rating: 69 (37th since 2018)
Draft Pick (Based on mock draft data): 110
Rookie Age: 22.2
Height: 75.5 inches
Weight: 241 pounds
Joly was a two- and three-star prospect out of New York in 2022. He played his first two seasons at UCONN before cashing in on a solid Year 2 via the transfer portal as a four-star recruit. He was the No. 3 portal tight end in 2024.
He finished his final two years playing for NC State, where he enjoyed his most productive season in Year 3 with 51 YPG. He recorded a career-high seven TDs in Year 4, accounting for 58% of the team's total in the games he played.
What the Production Says
Joly was a plus player in both of the Production Rating categories. While neither mark is in elite territory, they are meaningful because receiving profile TEs are not easy to find. Due to this, his Production Rating of 81 ranks 18th out of 191 prospects since 2018.
Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 61st percentile
Targeted QB Passer Rating: 100.5, 61st percentile
Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
He earned immediate playing time as a freshman and improved every year over his first three seasons:
2022 at UCONN: 1.02 RYPTPA (7th since 2018), 21 YPG, 2 TDs
While a 1.02 RYPTPA as a freshman mark might not seem very high, it is the seventh-highest mark in the history of the model for a Year 1 player. Getting on the field and producing is hard for young TEs.
Preferably, Joly would have raised his Year 3 RYPTPA more. But the biggest question mark comes from his final season, where his production dipped, excluding TDs. He suffered a hamstring injury in late October against Pittsburgh, which forced him to miss the next game and might have been a factor late in the season.
Still, his career-adjusted RYPTA was in the same range as Sam LaPorta and Tucker Kraft. And his contextual production data points tell a similar story. His collegiate production profile points to an above-average receiving option.
Career YPRR: 1.78 (60th percentile)
Career FDPRR: 9% (57th percentile)
Career TPRR: 21% (58th percentile)
Beyond the Production
Joly's target-depth distribution was extremely balanced. His 8.3-yard career aDOT (40th percentile) is slightly deceiving, given that his targets weren't skewed toward underneath work compared with historical prospect averages.
Behind the line of scrimmage: 12% (+1 vs avg)
Short (0-9 yds): 48% (-2 vs avg)
Medium (10-19 yds): 28% (+1 vs avg)
Deep (20+ yds): 12% (+0 vs avg)
His 5.5 YAC average was slightly higher than expected (+0.3) after adjusting for aDOT. For a receiving TE, we would like a higher number, but that falls in the good-enough range.
Joly has massive hands (10.5 inches) and knows how to use them. His career drop rate of 4.3% is below the 5.8% average for prospects since 2018. In his 53 contested catch situations, he was a venus fly trap, gobbling up 66% of those targets—the best mark for a TE in the class. The average for a prospect is 49%.
Similar to many receiving-archetype profiles, Joly did more of his work detached from the line of scrimmage. He aligned in-line only 36% of the time. He also has question marks as a run blocker. His career PFF Run Block Grade was 57.9 (40th percentile). That could impact playing time if he doesn't improve.
Here are the results for players that went between picks 80 and 150 in the NFL draft and had similar Production Ratings and PFF Blocking grades:
Lance Zierlein has a 6.16 prospect grade on Joly. He sees the NC State TE as the dreaded "F" archetype. Essentially, that is a plus receiver you can move around the formation, but it is best suited as a situational TE2. He calls out concerns about him as a blocker, but lists contested-catch ability and three-level target versatility as positives.
In a nutshell: Data 🤝 Film.
Fantasy Football Outlook For TE Justin Joly
Since 2018, 40 TEs have posted a Super Model rating between 64 and 74, with 15% delivering a top-12 finish by Year 3.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model rates Joly as an underrated TE who is worthy of a Round 3 NFL Draft Pick. But he must improve as a blocker to unlock a full-time role at the next level. Still, we are aiming for receiving upside in fantasy, so this is the type of profile that can pay dividends when we get it right, versus a less productive player that is a better blocker. Joly profiles as a mid-range TE2 with low-end TE1 upside in fantasy.
Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile
Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
TargetShare: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
TPRR: Targets per route run.
YAC: Average yards after the catch.
YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
YPG: Yards per game.
YPRR: Yards per route run.
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