Kaytron Allen Scouting Report And Prospect Profile From The 2026 Rookie Super Model
Dwain McFarland breaks down what the 2026 Rookie Super Model says about Kaytron Allen and his projected fantasy football production over the next few seasons.
Penn State RB Kaytron Allen checks in as the RB7 in this year's RB Super Model. For the full RB class, check out the 2026 RB Rookie Super Model.
If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.
You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.
Scouting Report and Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile for Kaytron Allen
Super Model Rating: 68 (94th since 2017)
Draft Pick (based on Mock Draft data): 110
RookieAge: 23.7
Height: 71 inches
Weight: 216 pounds
Allen was a consensus four-star recruit in the 2022 class out of IMG Academy in Florida. He was considered a top-15 RB prospect across all three major recruiting platforms.
He joined that year's No. 1 RB recruit Nicholas Singleton to form a dynamic rushing duo over his four years at Happy Valley. Allen posted 50%-plus snap shares each season, handling more of the rushing workload with Singleton getting the edge in route participation.
What the Production Says
Allen started strong in his first year at Penn State, producing at a level well above the average for Year 1 prospects. However, his production plateaued, and his best season didn't occur until Year 4. When you put all of that together, you get a slightly below-average year-weighted YPTA.
Playing in a highly competitive program (89 Program Quality Rating) helps offset some of that in the Rookie Super Model. But in the end, we are left with questions in the form of a 66 Production Rating.
Year-Weighted YPTA: 1.37 (47th percentile)
Best YPTA: 1.91 (50th percentile)
Best RYPTPA: 0.45 (22nd percentile)
Nerd note: What do these numbers mean?
YPTA: Adjusted yards per team attempt (pass + rush), with receiving yards double-weighted. Normalizes production across teams with different play volumes.
Year-Weighted YPTA: Weights Years 1-3 more heavily, where college production best predicts NFL success. Year 4 carries a negative correlation. Good players show up early.
Best YPTA: Career-high yards per team attempt season.
Best RYPTPA: Peak-season receiving yards per team pass attempt, normalizing production across run-heavy vs. pass-heavy offenses.
Below, you can see how Allen performed over each year. His Year 1 YPTA was well above the 0.89 average for Year 1 RBs. While his rushing yards per game (YPG) remained steady, his YPTAs were below the historical averages of 1.31 and 1.54 in Years 2 and 3.
He also never posted a strong RYPTA season, with Singleton handling more of the passing game work.
While this data isn't great, it is always hard to peel the layers back on players who played with other quality options in a split backfield. NFL Draft capital is massively important for all prospects, but where Allen goes in the draft will tell us if a team thought he could have been more in a less crowded backfield. Of course, a shallow draft class makes that statement a little more shaky. Going in Round 3 this year isn't the same as doing it in the 2025 class, for example.
Regardless of where he is drafted, Allen is in prove-it territory when it comes to his receiving prowess. His best target-share season was 8% (32nd percentile), and his career per-route data aligns with his best RYPTPA mark.
Career YPRR: 0.74 (26th percentile)
Career TPRR: 14% (31st percentile)
Beyond the Production
Another area that can help us with a prospect like Allen is their Film Rating. While his rating of 75 is higher than his Production Rating, the two inputs for his Film Rating are at odds.
NFL.com Prospect Grade: 5.97 (37th percentile)
Career PFF Rushing & Receiving Grade: 71.0 (71st percentile)
Lance Zierlein views Allen as an average backup. However, his scouting profile write-up has some similarities to Jadarian Price. Zierlein highlights Allen's "patience" and "natural feel", noting the ability to play in any run scheme. He denotes negatives as a lack of burst and third-down value.
The burst comment aligns with Allen's advanced rushing profile and a below-average rate of 10-plus yard attempts. Although Zierlein notes his ability after contact as a positive, he was below average for a prospect.
Rushing Average Yards After Contact: 3.35 (35th percentile)
10-Plus Yard Attempts: 14% (38th percentile)
Allen notched a 51.1 career PFF Pass Block Grade (49th percentile) and allowed pressure on 6.5% of his pass-pro reps (below the 7% average). His drop rate was also in line with the average at 6.3%, and his career fumble rate of 0.7% was slightly better than average (0.9%).
Fantasy Football Outlook For Kaytron Allen
There have been 100 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 63 and 73 since 2017, with 18% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Allen as a mid-Day 3 NFL Draft pick, but it could be underestimating his competition in Nicholas Singleton at Penn State. Allen's scheme versatility in gap or zone schemes could help him get on the field regardless of landing spot. Still, it is hard to get too hyped about a player who hasn't flashed upside as a receiver, especially for fantasy football. On an RB-needy team, he could carve out a role as an early-down back. He is an RB4 with RB3 upside in fantasy.
Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile
Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
TargetShare: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
TPRR: Targets per route run.
YAC: Average yards after the catch.
YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
YPG: Yards per game.
YPRR: Yards per route run.
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Nerd note: What do these numbers mean?
