KC Concepcion clocks in as the WR4 in the release of the 2026 Rookie Super Model. I've profiled 25 of the top wide receivers in the class with individual Prospect Profiles from their Super Model data. For the full WR class, check out the 2026 WR Rookie Super Model.

If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.

You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.

KC Concepcion Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile

• Super Model Rating: 81 (36th since 2018)
• Draft Pick: 28
• Rookie Age: 22
• Height: 72 inches
• Weight: 196 pounds

Concepcion was widely considered a three-star recruit coming out of Charlotte, North Carolina, in 2023. He stayed local for his first two seasons, playing for NC State, where he won ACC Rookie of the Year. 

After two campaigns with the Wolfpack, Concepcion entered the transfer portal as a four-star recruit and signed with Texas A&M for his final season in 2025.

Concepcion is an ascending talent who leveled up his stock every step of the way.

What the Production Says

Concepcion's Production Rating of 78 aligns with players who have been late-first- and early-second-round picks since 2018 (79).

• Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 57th percentile
• Targeted QB Passer Rating: 100.8, 47th percentile
   

He was electric in his first year on campus, earning a 29% target share and garnering a 2.22 YPTA—the eighth-best Year 1 mark in the model's history. He finished the season with 65 yards per game and 10 receiving TDs, earning ACC Rookie of the Year.

Concepcion's second season didn't go as well. The targets were there (26%), but he battled minor injuries and lost his starting QB after four games. His catch rate dropped from 69% to 60% as his drop rate climbed from 5% to 8%. His RYPTPA fell to 1.26 with only 36 yards per game. The coaching staff caught some heat for a lack of creativity with Concepcion. With more attention from opposing defenses, the screens weren't as effective. He saw 26% of his targets come behind the line of scrimmage.

The predictability of the Wolfpack offense is part of why he entered the transfer portal. That ended up being a great move. Concepcion's aDOT climbed from 6.9 to 12.2, and his RYPTPA jumped to 2.24. He averaged 70.7 yards per game and scored 9 receiving TDs with TAMU.

Concepcion's career TPRR of 27% (74th percentile) is in line with Lemon (28%) and a little below Tyson (31%). He was also strong against man coverage with a 32% TPRR.

The early NFL Draft declaree's utility is broader than his value as a WR. He demonstrated the ability to contribute in the run game and on special teams.

• Rushing: 432 yards, 3 TDs
• Punt returns: 505 yards, 2 TDs
   

Here are the players with two or more punt return TDs that were Day 1 or Day 2 picks:

• Dante Pettis (6)
• Christian Kirk (4)
• Jayden Reed (3)
• D.J. Chark Jr. (2)
• Diontae Johnson (2)
• Jalen Reagor (2)
• Diontae Johnson (2)
• Jaylen Waddle (2)
• Jayden Reed (3)   
   

Beyond the Production

Concepcion relied on a heavy diet of underneath targets, which could make landing spot a critical factor for his future production.

• Behind the Line of Scrimmage Targets: 21% (+7 vs. avg)
• Short Targets (0-9 yards): 42% (+6 vs avg)
• Medium Targets (10-19 yards): 21% (-5 vs. avg)
• Deep Targets (20+ yards): 16% (-6 vs. avg)
   

A bright offensive mind like Kyle Shanahan would be a great fit for his skill set, especially given his YAC prowess and ability in the run game. Concepcion notched a 6.6 YAC average, 1.6 yards over expected for his 9.3 aDOT. The Chiefs are another team that could maximize Concepcion if they have grown tired of the off-field issues with Rashee Rice.

There could be untapped upside as a full-route-tree player who can move all over the formation. Concepcion demonstrated a new level in his game in 2025 with Texas A&M, where only 14% of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage. That season, 21% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield. At NC State, Concepcion was limited mostly to the slot, aligning wide on only 4% and 15% of the snaps. That number skyrocketed to 65% at TAMU.

The biggest knock on Concepcion in his profile is his 6.5% career drop rate. That is high for a player who only saw 12% of his targets contested. Zierlein cited issues "working into the teeth of the defense" and "trouble adjusting to throws at varied speeds" as negatives in his prospect profile, which gave him a grade of 6.40 (64th percentile).

Nerd Note: As aDOT increases, contested target rates increase as defenders have more time to react to the ball. The deeper the aDOT, the more likely a receiver is to deal with more than one defender in coverage and decreased accuracy from their QB.

Fantasy Outlook For KC Concepcion

Since 2018, 41 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 76 and 86, with 41% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

• Top-six finishes: 10%
• Top-12 finishes: 17%
• Top-24 finishes: 41%
• Top-36 finishes: 54%

Concepcion's closest Super Model comps:

• Brandon Aiyuk
• Luther Burden

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Concepcion as a late Day 1 or early Day 2 prospect. From a fantasy perspective, the landing spot could be critical if teams don't view him as a boundary player who can challenge multiple levels of the field. However, if his team views his final season at TAMU as the role, he could blossom into a very good fantasy asset. He profiles as a borderline WR3 who offers WR2 upside. In an offense like the 49ers or Chiefs, WR1 upside is on the table.

Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile

• Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
• aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
• Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
• Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
• Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
• Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
• FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
• Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
• Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
• Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
• RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
• SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
• Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
• TPRR: Targets per route run.
• YAC: Average yards after the catch.
• YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
• YPG: Yards per game.
• YPRR: Yards per route run.

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