Move over Russell Wilson, there’s a new sheriff in town. The Dolphins set a new record by paying a cap hit of just under $100M to have Tua Tagovailoa not play football for them anymore. They’ll be able to spread that over two years, but that’s still a massive chunk of change.

However, one team’s trash can be another team’s treasure, and the Falcons have reportedly agreed to bring in Tagovailoa on a one-year deal. Tagovailoa will compete with Michael Penix Jr. for the starting quarterback job in Atlanta, at least when Penix is healthy enough to play football.

There’s no guarantee that happens at the beginning of the season. Penix suffered a torn ACL in 2025, his third dating back to his time in college. Fortunately, this injury occurred on his left knee, while the previous two were on his right. It gives him a chance to suit up at the start of the season, but Tagovailoa will likely get the majority of the opportunities throughout training camp. Will that be enough for Tagovailoa to take the job and run with it?

Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Outlook With Atlanta Falcons

It wasn’t too long ago that Tagovailoa was a darkhorse MVP candidate for a potent Dolphins’ offense. He led the league in passing yards just in 2023, finishing with 4,624 for an 11-win squad. He also tossed 29 touchdown passes while averaging 8.17 adjusted yards per attempt.

Unfortunately, Tagovailoa hasn’t looked like the same quarterback since then. His injury history is well documented, with his previous concussions particularly glaring. His 2024 concussion vs. the Bills was terrifying, and it represented the fourth of his career.

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Tagovailoa is coming off the worst season of his career. He threw just 20 touchdown passes to 15 interceptions, and his yards per game plummeted to 190.0. He averaged 6.21 adjusted yards per attempt, which was a far cry from his league-best 9.21 mark in 2022-23.

When discussing Tagovailoa, it’s hard to separate him from his elite supporting cast. He was excellent when playing alongside game-changers like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane, but his numbers fell off a cliff without them. Especially at this point in his career, he’s extremely reliant on his teammates doing most of the damage.

That is reflected in the data. He got rid of the ball quicker than all but three other quarterbacks last season, while he averaged just 6.7 intended air yards per attempt. That was the sixth-lowest mark among quarterbacks.

Tagovailoa will have some quality playmakers at his disposal with Atlanta, but they’re not the same caliber of after-the-catch threats. They’re less likely to take a routine play and turn it into a long touchdown, so Tagovailoa is going to have to do a bit more of the work himself.

Fantasy Outlook for the Rest of the Atlanta Falcons

Regardless of who wins the starting QB job in Atlanta, Bijan Robinson’s work as a pass catcher should be secure. He had a 20% target share last season, while Achane had a 20% mark alongside Tagovailoa. Add in the fact that Tyler Allgeier is now in Arizona, and Robinson has a clear claim to the RB1 spot in fantasy rankings.

What to do with Drake London isn’t quite as clear. London has had drastic splits with Penix at quarterback vs. Kirk Cousins over the past two seasons. His target share has been well north of 30% with Penix under center, while Cousins was more willing to spread the ball around. If Tagovailoa can beat out Penix for the job (or if Penix isn’t healthy to start the year), it would be a clear downgrade for London’s fantasy prospects. If Penix is able to hold off Tagovailoa, London looks like a potential top-10 option at the position. It makes him one of the riskier stud targets at receiver currently.

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