
Matt LaMarca breaks down the biggest risers and fallers in terms of fantasy football based on what happened around the NFL during the opening week of free agency.

It’s been a whirlwind first week of free agency. While the Maxx Crosby to the Ravens fiasco has garnered most of the headlines, there have also been a bunch of moves that have impacted the fantasy landscape.
Peter Overzet did a great job of highlighting some of the biggest winners who stayed put in a recent newsletter, but I want to focus on some of the biggest risers and fallers who changed teams. Let’s dive right in.
RELATED: Updated fantasy football rankings post-free agency.
It’s tempting to dream about the idea of placing Walker into the prime Chiefs’ offense. That said, it’s important to remember that the current version of the Chiefs isn’t the same one that dominated during the early Patrick Mahomes years. They were 20th in yards and points per game last season, and they were among the worst running teams in the league. They were 24th in rushing yards per game, while their offensive line was 25th in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate.
Still, the idea of Walker getting a bell-cow role has to be considered an upgrade for fantasy purposes. Walker is an elite talent at the position, earning the No. 1 Pro Football Focus grade in 2025-26. We got a glimpse of what he could do with a bell-cow role in the playoffs last season. He averaged 104 rushing yards in his three playoff contests, and he added 3.0 receptions and 34.7 receiving yards per game. He also scored four total touchdowns.
The change of scenery is enough to vault him into the top 10 in the RB rankings for the upcoming season. Hopefully, Mahomes will be ready for the start of the season, and the addition of Walker helps the Chiefs’ offense return to prominence.
Moore is a big-time target for me personally following his move to Buffalo. It cost the Bills a second-round pick, but Moore is still in the prime of his career at 28 years old. He’s coming off a down season in 2025-26, but he had to deal with one of the deepest groups of pass catchers in the league. Between Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, it was tough for anyone in Chicago to separate from the rest of the pack.
Now, Moore becomes the unquestioned top pass catcher for one of the best quarterbacks in the league. We’ve seen what Moore can do in that role previously. He had at least 1,157 receiving yards in four of five seasons from 2019 through 2023, and he turned in a WR6 finish just two years ago. That was with a combination of Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent at quarterback. If he can do that with those guys, it’s scary to think what he can do with Josh Allen.
Matthew Berry’s fantasy “Ride or Die” from two years ago has the potential to see one of the biggest increases in value due to his change of scenery. Murray seemed stuck in the mud in Arizona over the past few years, and injuries have always been a concern for the diminutive quarterback. However, if he’s able to stay on the field, this will be easily the best circumstances he’s had in his NFL career.
Murray gets to head to Minnesota and work with head coach Kevin O’Connell, who has been something of a quarterback whisperer throughout his NFL tenure. He couldn’t make things work with J.J. McCarthy last year, but he got elite production out of Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold. It’s possible that McCarthy is just not an NFL-caliber quarterback, and there’s no denying Murray’s talent when healthy.
Murray will also have an elite group of pass-catchers to lean on. Justin Jefferson remains one of the premier receivers in the league, while Jordan Addison is an overqualified No. 2 option.
Before last season, Murray was a perennial top-10 option at quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game. He could very easily get back to that threshold if he wins the starting job in Minnesota, making him a nice upside option for those who wait to address the position.
It felt like the Colts had too many pass catchers at times last season, so it’s not surprising that they’ve thinned the herd a bit for 2026-27. They brought back Alec Pierce for nearly $30M a year across the next four seasons, and to help offset that cost, they shipped Pittman to the Steelers.
Pittman quietly finished as WR18 last year in terms of PPR scoring, despite slumping down the stretch with Daniel Jones on the sidelines. He racked up 80 catches, 724 yards, seven touchdowns and led the Colts with a 21% target share.
It’s hard to imagine him getting back to that threshold with the Steelers. DK Metcalf figures to be the team’s No. 1 option, and he led their receiving corps with a 22% mark last season. No other receiver was above 13%, so he should be looking at a downgrade in volume.
The quality of those targets could also be lacking. It’s still unclear who will be under center for the Steelers next season, but Aaron Rodgers remains the odds-on favorite. Rodgers is a shell of his former self at this point. He got rid of the ball faster than any QB in football last season, and he averaged just 5.79 intended air yards per attempt. It’s hard to imagine Rodgers being able to support two fantasy-relevant receivers, so Pittman is likely looking at some serious regression.
Speaking of regression, no one has a larger gap between 2025 finish and 2026 projections than Robinson. That was going to be true almost regardless of where he landed. Robinson stepped into much more volume than anticipated following the Malik Nabers injury, and he responded with the best year of his career.
Robinson was rewarded with a big contract by the Titans, but he’ll be joining one of the worst passing offenses from 2025-26. The Titans averaged just 166.1 passing yards per game last season, which was more than only the Browns and Jets.
It’s possible that the team takes a step forward in that department next season. Cam Ward showed flashes as a rookie, and quarterbacks tend to have their biggest leaps in between years one and two. Still, Calvin Ridley was a massive disappointment as the Titans’ WR1 last season, and he’s accomplished much more in his career than Robinson has. He ultimately finished as WR75 in terms of PPR points per game, and he had just one game with double-digit fantasy points.
Gainwell was an afterthought headed into last season, but he emerged as a legit starter in PPR formats. He had the fifth-highest target share at the RB position, with Rodgers routinely checking the ball down to him.
Now, Gainwell heads to a crowded backfield in Tampa Bay. Bucky Irving was banged up for most of last season, but he was an absolute stud as a rookie. If he’s healthy, it’s hard to imagine him not being a bell-cow back for the Bucs in 2026-27.
Gainwell will likely fill the Rachaad White role for Tampa Bay, and while that role still has some value, it’s not as appealing as the role he just had in Pittsburgh.
