Seth McGowan Scouting Report and Prospect Profile From The 2026 Rookie Super Model
Dwain McFarland breaks down the 2026 Rookie Super Model's analysis of RB Seth McGowan and what it means for his fantasy football outlook.
Kentucky RB Seth McGowan checks in as the RB8 in this year's RB Super Model. For the full RB class, check out the 2026 RB Rookie Super Model.
If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.
You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.
Scouting Report and Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For Seth McGowan
Super Model Rating: 67 (107th since 2017)
Draft Pick (based on mock draft data): 177
Rookie Age: 24.3
Height: 72 inches
Weight: 223 pounds
McGowan was a consensus four-star recruit in the 2020 class out of Poteet High School in Mesquite, Texas. As a painful side note, that is where I broke my collarbone as a freshman in a preseason game in high school. Undoubtedly, I would have never been able to tackle McGowan, who ran for 3,701 yards and 45 TDs. I probably would have left the field in a full body cast. But I bet my co-host Ian Hartitz would have gotten in at least a good lick or two.
McGowan signed with Oklahoma, where he was a rotational back in Year 1. But he was dismissed from the program in May of 2021 due to felony charges for armed robbery. He didn't play football that season.
From 2022 to 2023, McGowan didn't play at Texas College (NAIA) and appeared in only six contests at Butler Community College (JUCO), while working through his legal issues. In December of 2023, he reached a plea deal.
In 2024, McGowan returned to FBS-level football with New Mexico State, where he played in a rotation with Mike Washington Jr. The two split carries, but McGowan was the preferred passing-game option. McGowan led the team with 69 rushing yards per game.
After his resurgence, McGown entered the transfer portal as a four-star recruit and played his final season at Kentucky, playing 54% of the snaps as their RB1.
What the Production Says
McGowan is an interesting prospect. While he is older, his year-weighted YPTA doesn't get completely obliterated, because it doesn't count the missed seasons due to legal issues against him. Still, his best seasons were below average, which results in a 73 Production Rating (slightly below average).
Year-Weighted YPTA: 1.55 (54th percentile)
Best YPTA: 1.69 (44th percentile)
Best RYPTPA: 0.86 (42nd percentile)
Nerd note: What do these numbers mean?
YPTA: Adjusted yards per team attempt (pass + rush), with receiving yards double-weighted. Normalizes production across teams with different play volumes.
Year-Weighted YPTA: Weights Years 1-3 more heavily, where college production best predicts NFL success. Year 4 carries a negative correlation. Good players show up early.
Best YPTA: Career-high yards per team attempt season.
Best RYPTPA: Peak-season receiving yards per team pass attempt, normalizing production across run-heavy vs. pass-heavy offenses.
The model adjusts for the strength of competition, but it is worth noting that McGowan's most productive YPTA seasons came against lower-level competition at New Mexico State. Plus, his RYPTPA regressed in a larger role in his final season against SEC competition.
Year 1 at Oklahoma: 1.43 YPTA, 0.75 RYPTPA
Year 2 at New Mexico State: 1.69 YPTA, 0.86 RYPTPA
Year 3 at Kentucky: 1.33 YPTA, 0.36 RYPTPA
Still, McGowan notched a best-target-share season of 14% (48th percentile), and his career per-route data points to an average receiving back:
Career YPRR: 1.55 (55th percentile)
Career TPRR: 20% (52nd percentile)
Beyond the Production
McGowan's Film Rating of 76 is average for an NFL RB prospect based on data back to the 2017 class.
NFL.com Prospect Grade: 5.97 (37th percentile)
Career PFF Rushing & Receiving Grade: 72.2 (73rd percentile)
Lance Zierlein's prospect profile slots McGowan as an average backup. He sees him as a back with good processing skills, patience and decisiveness in the inside and outside run game. He notes short-yardage skills as a positive, but has concerns about his explosiveness and ability to contribute on passing downs.
McGowan's advanced rushing profile mostly aligns with those sentiments. He was good enough at evading tacklers, but struggled to generate carries of 10-plus yards.
Rushing Average Yards After Contact: 3.22 (31st percentile)
10-Plus Yard Attempts: 13% (32nd percentile)
While McGowan's receiving production profile sees him as an above-average prospect, his 10.3% career drop rate is well above the 6.8% average since 2017. He was also below average as a pass blocker with a 43.4 career PFF Pass Block Grade (37th percentile). He does have the size and strength to improve in this category, and his 6.1% allowed pressure rate was better than the 7% average.
McGowan also had a 1.4% career fumble rate (vs. 0.9% average), which creates further concerns about his ability to secure the pigskin.
At the NFL Scouting Combine, McGowan ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash (62nd percentile), which is a good mark for a 223-pound back. His 109.7 Speed Score falls in the 67th percentile.
Nerd Note: Bill Barnwell invented Speed Score. It helps us understand how fast a player is relative to their weight. A 180-pound RB running a 4.40-second 40-yard dash isn't the same thing as a 215-pound back with the same time. Of all the testing data points from the NFL Scouting Combine, Speed Score carries the most signal for NFL RB production. Formula: Weight*200/(40-yard dash)4.
Fantasy Football Outlook For Seth McGowan
There have been 107 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 62 and 72 since 2017, with 16% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
Bottom line: McGowan profiles as a mid-Day 3 NFL Draft pick in the Rookie Super Model. The model doesn't count his three seasons missed due to legal issues, but he never notched a high-end season. He flashed some ability in the passing game, but concerns about his pass blocking and drops could neutralize that aspect of his profile. Still, if he improves in those areas, he theoretically has three-down ability. McGowan is an RB5 in fantasy who likely needs a weak depth chart or injury to a starter (decent handcuff) to make noise.
Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile
Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
TargetShare: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
TPRR: Targets per route run.
YAC: Average yards after the catch.
YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
YPG: Yards per game.
YPRR: Yards per route run.
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Nerd note: What do these numbers mean?
