Rating the 2026 NFL Running Back Prospects: The Rookie Super Model
Dwain McFarland breaks down how the 2026 Running Back class measures up in the Rookie Super Model, going tier by tier to break down their prospect profiles and fantasy outlooks ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Have you ever wondered how NFL Draft prospects stack up across multiple factors—draft pick, collegiate production and film? Yeah, me too.
That's why I built the Rookie Super Model. And it has a strong track record compared to NFL Draft pick alone. Using well-researched inputs that matter for RB prospects, we rate and tier the top 2026 running backs, with player comps and historical fantasy hit rates included.
Analysis here focuses on the bottom line, but full write-ups are linked throughout and accessible via the NFL Draft Guide under the Analysis tab. As we get updated mock draft and actual draft pick data, we will update the Rookie Super Model.
What Is The RB Rookie Super Model?
New to the Rookie Super Model? The introductory guide covers all inputs by position and includes a glossary of any unfamiliar terms. We also have a quick-reference glossary at the end of this article. Returning Super Model lovers, welcome to Year 4!
In short, the model calculates a rating between 50 and 100 based on what has historically mattered most for NFL production. It accounts for age, strength of schedule, program quality and teammates to normalize comparisons.
Don't fixate on exact grades—focus on tiers and range of outcomes. That's how you find over- and underpriced assets.
Below is a review of how RB prospects fared based on Rookie Super Model rating. For example, 100% of the RBs rated between 90 and 100 achieved a top-six PPR finish by Year 3 versus 71% for TEs rated 80 to 89.
How Do The 2026 RB Prospects Compare To Previous Years?
Before we dive into the prospects, let's zoom out and assess the overall strength of this RB class. To do this, I have broken the prospects into three buckets:
Super Model Rating: 90 to 100 (elite prospects)
Super Model Rating: 80 to 89 (great prospects)
Super Model Rating: 70 to 79 (good prospects)
The data below shows the number of elite, great, and good prospects from each class since 2017:
2017: 2, 2, 2 (6)
2018: 1, 0, 8 (9)
2019: 0, 0, 5 (5)
2020: 0, 2, 6 (8)
2021: 0, 2, 4 (6)
2022: 0, 1, 4 (5)
2023: 0, 2, 3 (5)
2024: 0, 0, 3 (3)
2025: 1, 1, 8 (10)
2026: 0, 1, 3 (4)
For 2026, we are using mock draft data, so things will change when we get actual draft picks. But as of now, this RB class only offers one elite/great prospect, which is below the average of 1.4. If Jeremiyah Love goes in the first four picks, he will climb into the elite bucket—he is right on the borderline (89).
It is also worth noting that the three RBs in the good prospect bucket barely make the cut with ratings of 71, 71 and 70. There is a massive drop-off after Jeremiyah Love. This is a weak class, but needy RB teams could push some names up the draft board.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model rates Love as an early-mid-Round 1 NFL Draft pick. His Production Rating isn't as strong as past top-12 picks, but he improved every season and notched strong numbers at a young age. He is electric with the ball in his hands and has the size-speed combo to play every down and create field-flipping plays. His Film Rating suggests unrealized upside as a receiver, which could send him to the superstar stratosphere in fantasy football. Love is a mid-range RB1 with high-end RB1 upside.
Tier 2: Potential Every-Down RBs with RB2-RB3 Upside
Note: For Tiers 2 and 3, we have six prospects clustered tightly together. The slightest change in draft capital will move these players around. So, we will split them into potential every-down options and early-down backs. The player graphics still represent their overall rank in the Rookie Super Model.
Bottom line: Coleman rates as a Round 3 NFL Draft pick in the Rookie Super Model. He delivered solid but not great production over his first three seasons and had a strong Year 4 before his PCL injury. He has a three-down skill set, but could struggle to produce at the same level in the NFL. His low drop and fumble rates, combined with strong pass-pro skills, could quickly make him a coach's pet. This profile is the type that can surprise in a weak RB room or step into a full-time role if injury knocks the starter out. Coleman is a low-end RB3 with RB2 upside in fantasy football.
For Singleton's range-of-outcomes analysis, we will give him a one-point bump in the model (71) for his speed, since that is one of his biggest positives, and his Senior Bowl injury kept him from running at the NFL Scouting Combine.
There have been 73 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 66 and 76 since 2017, with 27% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Singleton as an early-Day 3 NFL Draft pick. He flashed significant production potential quickly, but a time-share with Kaytron Allen clouds our ability to evaluate his ceiling. Had he run at the NFL Scouting Combine, Singleton might be the RB2 in this class, considering how much Mike Washington Jr. has climbed. Singleton is a better receiver than Washington and has the size-speed combo NFL teams covet. However, the former No. 1 RB recruit must improve his feel for the game to unlock his potential. He feels like a near lock to land on a Kyle Shanahan-style offense, but can his vision improve enough to take advantage of a wide zone scheme? Singleton has a boom-bust feel to his profile as an RB4, with a shot at RB2-RB3 upside in fantasy football.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Johnson as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick. He was electric in Year 4 but a late bloomer, keeping his Production Rating in check. He is one of the better receiving backs in the class, but he must clean up his pass-blocking issues to earn consistent passing-down snaps. If he improves as a blocker, he could create fantasy value on an RB-poor team as an every-down option. Johnson is an RB4 with RB3-RB2 upside in the right situation in fantasy land.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model sees Price as an early-Day 3 NFL Draft pick. While he gets credit for playing at a strong program (94 Program Quality Rating), his Production Rating (59) hurts him. However, it was an extreme situation with the Fighting Irish, playing with a future top-10 RB pick. With Price, we are betting on his Film Rating (81) being right and his instincts and vision as a runner helping him eventually carve out an early-down role in the NFL. But he must improve as a receiver and pass blocker to unlock an every-down role. Price is an RB4 with a shot at RB2 or RB3 upside in fantasy football.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Washington as a Day 3 NFL Draft selection. His 64 Production Rating is low due to his extremely slow start. However, he did flash in Year 5 at Arkansas, which might have some NFL teams giddy about taking a stab on Day 2 in a weak RB class—especially after testing extremely well at the NFL Combine. His production profile and film point toward limited upside in the passing game, so Washington needs a soft landing spot with a path to early-down work or as the primary early-down backup. To stay out of the doghouse, he must improve his ball security and pass blocking. Washington is an RB4 who could offer RB2 upside on the right team that can maximize his straight-line speed.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Allen as a mid-Day 3 NFL Draft pick, but it could be underestimating his competition in Nicholas Singleton at Penn State. Allen's scheme versatility in gap or zone schemes could help him get on the field regardless of landing spot. Still, it is hard to get too hyped about a player who hasn't flashed upside as a receiver, especially for fantasy football. On an RB-needy team, he could carve out a role as an early-down back. He is an RB4 with RB3 upside in fantasy.
Bottom line: McGowan profiles as a mid-Day 3 NFL Draft pick in the Rookie Super Model. The model doesn't count his three seasons missed due to legal issues, but he never notched a high-end season. He flashed some ability in the passing game, but concerns about his pass blocking and drops could neutralize that aspect of his profile. Still, if he improves in those areas, he theoretically has three-down ability. McGowan is an RB5 in fantasy who likely needs a weak depth chart or injury to a starter (decent handcuff) to make noise.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Taylor as a mid-to-late Day 3 NFL Draft pick. He was a zero-star recruit who started slow as an FCS walk-on at North Carolina Central University. He didn't notch a significant season until Year 4. However, that was enough to earn him three-star status in the transfer portal, playing Year 5 for Virginia. Taylor has some allure as a potential three-down back. He notched a 20% career TPRR (52nd percentile) with a best-season RYPTPA of 1.06 (52nd percentile), and a best target-share season of 15% (52nd percentile). Taylor also showed an ability to work beyond the line of scrimmage with a 2.0 career average depth of target (aDOT). He was solid in pass pro (57th percentile), allowing pressure on only 5% of reps. Taylor is an RB5 in fantasy football. He could earn passing-down work early and possibly an every-down role if things break his way.
Tier 5: RB6 Dart Throws
Demond Claiborne | Wake Forest
Super Model Rating: 64 (147th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 146
Rookie Age: 22.9
Height: 70 inches
Weight: 188 pounds
Production Rating: 67
Film Rating: 74
Program Quality Rating: 70
Strength of Schedule Rating: 81
Recruiting Stars: 3 to 4
Fantasy Outlook
There have been 133 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 59 and 69 since 2017, with 9% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Claiborne as a late Day 3 NFL Draft pick. He was a three- and four-star recruit, but never took over a backfield that didn't feature future NFL players. He didn't notch a strong production season until Year 3 and regressed in Year 4. Some suggest potential as an explosive playmaker based on film, but his 12% explosive rush rate (10-plus-yard attempts) falls in the 29th percentile. Claiborne was also never a featured weapon in the passing game and dropped 11.3% of his targets. This feels like a player who could go too early because of his 4.37-second 40-yard dash (85th percentile) at the NFL Scouting Combine and a weak draft class. Claiborne is an RB6 in fantasy football.
Adam Randall | Clemson
Super Model Rating: 64 (148th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 185
Rookie Age: 22.1
Height: 75 inches
Weight: 232 pounds
Production Rating: 60
Film Rating: 76
Program Quality Rating: 83
Strength of Schedule Rating: 84
Recruiting Stars: 4 (as a WR)
Fantasy Outlook
There have been 133 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 59 and 69 since 2017, with 9% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
Bottom line: Randall rates below average in the Rookie Super Model, viewed as a late-Day 3 selection. However, it is hard for a model to account for the number of variables at play in Randall's case. First, he was recruited as a WR, where he played for the first three years before switching to RB in Year 4, posting a 1.48 YPTA. Second, he battled through multiple injuries: April torn ACL in Year 1, but returned in time for the season; dealt with a broken hand in Years 1 and 2; played through a stress fracture in his foot in Year 3. He is a big back (232 pounds) with a 113.2 Speed Score (74th percentile). NFL teams could see toughness and untapped upside in Randall, but he is a project as an early-down option. Randall is an RB6 in fantasy.
Roman Hemby | Indiana
Super Model Rating: 64 (150th)
Draft Pick: Late
Rookie Age: 24.1
Height: 72 inches
Weight: 207 pounds
Production Rating: 71
Film Rating: 76
Program Quality Rating: 76
Strength of Schedule Rating: 87
Recruiting Stars: 2 to 3 in 2021
Fantasy Outlook
There have been 133 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 59 and 69 since 2017, with 9% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
Top-six finishes: 2%
Top-12 finishes: 5%
Top-24 finishes: 9%
Top-36 finishes: 16%
Skill set: Early-Down RB.
Hemby's closest Super Model comps:
La'Mical Perine
Rasheen Ali
Keaontay Ingram
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Hemby as a late-Day 3 NFL Draft pick. His production in Years 2 and 3 at Maryland was solid. However, he fell off in Year 4 and was sub-par in Year 5 at Indiana. He also never posted a strong receiving season, finishing his career with a 15% TPRR. When you add it all up, you get a 71 Production Rating. His Film Rating of 76 doesn't suggest that we are missing anything in his production profile. He doesn't make tacklers miss (27th percentile missed tackles forced) and isn't an explosive playmaker (20th percentile explosive rush rate). He could become an early-down option on a weak depth chart, as coaches like players who protect the football—he had a 0.2% fumble rate and 2% drop rate. But he has pass-pro issues (28th percentile PFF Pass Block Grade). Hemby is an RB6 dart throw.
RB Prospect Quick Hits:
Eli Heidenreich | Navy: Heidenreich has a difficult player to analyze as an RB because he was a slotback for the Midshipmen. In that role, he was really a receiver. His career route participation rate (75%), 11.5-yard aDOT and 10% designed rush rate tell us that. Heidenriech is Navy's all-time leading receiver. I think his most likely position in the NFL is slot WR, despite his invite as an RB at the NFL Scouting Combine, because the NFL gives slotbacks the FB designation. BUT if the two-star recruit ends up playing RB, he could immediately carve out a role in the two-minute offense and potentially grow into more. Bill Belichick would have drafted this dude for certain.
Desmond Reid | Pittsburgh: Reid was a two- to three-star recruit as an athlete in the 2022 class. He began his career with Western Carolina in the FCS for two seasons before transferring to Pitt as a three-star RB. His Production Rating (89) ranks No. 1 in the class. Reid is very small for an RB at 174 pounds, but he offers serious receiving chops: his 1.38 best-year RYPTPA (68th percentile) and 1.90 YPRR (68th percentile) are the top marks in the class. Reid profiles as a receiving back who could carve out a two-minute role, but at 174 pounds, it will be hard for him to rack up too many touches.
Le'Veon Moss | Texas A&M: Moss was a four-star recruit who gets a little love from the scouting community. His 63 Production Rating is bad. He was a slow starter in Years 1 and 2. However, he tore his ACL/MCL in Year 3, which was his best YPTA season (1.70). That might have impacted his Year 4 performance (0.78 YPTA). Wild stat: Had a 26.4 career Pass Block Grade (12th percentile), giving up a pressure on a jaw-dropping 19.6% of pass pro reps (51 snaps). Let's not get any star NFL QBs killed, OK? OK.
Rahsul Faison | South Carolina: Faison was a two-star recruit in the 2019 class who upped his status to four-star as a JUCO transfer. In three FBS seasons between Utah State (two years) and South Carolina (one year), he was below average with a -0.35 YPTA over expected. If you are looking for positives, his missed-tackle forced rate of 31% (73rd percentile), 3.74 average yards after contact (47th percentile), and 16% explosive rush rate (47th percentile) were all solid.
Noah Whittington | Oregon: Whittington was a two-star recruit in 2020. He was never able to generate significant production in two seasons at Western Kentucky and four at Oregon, resulting in a 61 Production Rating. He did face stiff competition with the Ducks, but ultimately didn't erupt even after Bucky Irving departed. His 69.8 career PFF Pass Block Grade (77th percentile) is the best in the class.
CJ Donaldson | Ohio State: Donaldson was a three-star hybrid TE-WR recruit in 2022. But that never translated into receiving prowess, with a best RYPTPA of 0.28 (14th percentile), and he was a below-average runner. That results in a 60 Production Rating.
Jam Miller | Alabama: Miller was a four-star recruit in the 2022 class. However, he was unable to register any meaningful production, leading to a 60 Production Rating.
Robert Henry Jr. | UTSA: Henry was a JUCO transfer who played his final two seasons. He notched a 1.70 YPTA in his final season. However, his career YPTA was -0.38 over expected after accounting for his 66 Strength of Schedule rating. Thus, a 64 Production Rating in the model.
Data Glossary For The RB Rookie Super Model
Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
Best RYPTPA: Peak-season receiving yards per team pass attempt, normalizing production across run-heavy vs. pass-heavy offenses.
Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
PFF Run Block Grade: Weighted average of run blocking grades based on run-block snaps each season.
Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
SOS YPTA Over Expected: Adjusts YPTA production for strength of schedule.
Speed Score: Speed normalized for weight; invented by Bill Barnwell. Formula: (Weight * 200) / (40-yard dash time)4
Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
TPRR: Targets per route run.
YAC: Average yards after the catch.
YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
Year-Weighted YPTA: Weights Years 1-3 more heavily, where college production best predicts NFL success. Year 4 carries a negative correlation. Good players show up early
YPG: Yards per game.
YPRR: Yards per route run.
YPTA: Adjusted yards per team attempt (pass + rush), with receiving yards double-weighted. Normalizes production across teams with different play volumes.
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